The Way to Churchill Downs

Post positions were drawn for the 143rd Preakness Wednesday, and the field is as follows: Quip (12-1) Lone Sailor (50-1) Sporting Chance (30-1) Diamond King (30-1) Good Magic (3-1) Tenfold (20-1) Justify (1-2) Bravazo (20-1) Even though Justify has an outside position, look for him to take the lead early and keep it. He likes the mud, and even a strong finish by Good Magic shouldn’t hurt him. I pick Justify in a romp, Good Magic second, and Bravazo third.

A video of Justify the morning after the Derby showed him favoring his left hind foot, which started the Interwebs chattering that Justify was lame. Technically,  “lame” means any condition in which a horse is not walking normally, but there are so many connotations for the term. But it automatically brings up the possibility of a serious injury. Trainer Bob Baffert quickly tried to put things to rest with a text message to reporters: Justify “has an irritated pastern that…

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Well, the Derby panned out the way I predicted, and I picked the winner (and so did thousands of others): Justify was in contention for the whole race, pulled away at the far turn, and won by two lengths over Good Magic. I had predicted a fast pace, with Instilled Regard going out front, and that’s what happened: the first quarter mile was in :22 and change, and the half-mile was in a little over :45. I was a little…

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This Derby has been difficult to predict: You have several green colts who didn’t race as two-year-olds but have been unbeatable; you have a champion from England who wowed everyone with a speedy race in the UAE, but is untested against American horses; and you have a few horses who excelled at two who haven’t lived up to their two-year-old hype. What to do? When in doubt, I go with the fast horse. The fastest. The one who’s proven that…

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